Cox Coronation Crumbles as GOP’s Long Island Lion Roars
By Rick LaRivière and Dick LaFontaine
A Clear Road for Elise Stefanik?
Westchester Rep. Mike Lawler’s gubernatorial ambitions died as quickly as they began this summer, snuffed out by a summons from the White House. Just a few months ago, the freshman congressman privately signaled a run for New York governor. Donald Trump told him to stand down.
The President had a blunt message: “No, Mike – I need you in Congress. You’re out. But I’ll make it up to you,” an insider source said.
Lawler dutifully bowed out in late July 2025, announcing he’d seek re-election to the House instead.
“While I do believe that I was best positioned to take on Governor Hochul, in the end, I made a decision as to what was right for me and my family,” Lawler explained, all but admitting Trump had yanked his leash.
The backroom maneuver instantly cleared the field for North Country Congresswoman Elise Stefanik to claim front-runner status for the 2026 GOP gubernatorial nomination.
Stefanik, who had reportedly been Trump’s pick for U.N. ambassador until concerns about a House vacancy scuttled it, was being groomed as the party’s standard-bearer. New York GOP Chairman Ed Cox eagerly touted Stefanik as the presumptive nominee, talking of uniting early behind the Trump-aligned congresswoman.
“Elise Stefanik is a unifier and a party builder with the brains, guts, and experience to finally take down Kathy Hochul,” Cox gushed in a statement, later insisting the party would coordinate on a single candidate to avoid any primary fight.
Democrats gleefully seized on the saga as a sign of Trump’s iron grip.
Gov. Kathy Hochul openly mocked Lawler’s capitulation, saying, “He apparently doesn’t have the courage to stand up to me or to Donald Trump… I know not only will he not be governor, he won’t be a congressman for much longer.”
But Trump’s intervention had achieved its goal: the path was seemingly set for Stefanik – armed with a multimillion-dollar war chest and Trump’s blessing – to march toward a coronation as the GOP nominee.
Bruce Blakeman Trumps Ed Cox: Defies “No-Primary” Plan
Not so fast, my friend. Enter Bruce Blakeman – the brash Nassau County Executive fresh off a decisive re-election on Long Island – who has stepped forward to crash the coronation.
Within days of Stefanik officially launching her 2026 campaign in early November, Blakeman publicly floated his own run for governor and delivered a stinging reality check to party bosses.
“I have tremendous respect for Elise,” Blakeman wrote in a social media broadside, “however our party must nominate a candidate that has broad-based appeal with independents and common-sense Democrats. The party must nominate the candidate with the best chance to defeat Kathy Hochul, and I have been urged by business, community and political leaders across the state to make the run – and I am seriously considering it.”
In other words, Blakeman smells blood in the water, and he’s not about to sit quietly while Ed Cox anoints Stefanik without a fight.
Cox had brazenly declared “There will not be a Republican primary, and a year from now Elise will lead our team to victory over Kathy Hochul” – effectively trying to freeze the field.
Blakeman blasted that as absurd and undemocratic, warning the party chairman’s scheme could turn into a “Kamala Harris-style coronation.”
“No one should be crowned the nominee without earning it,” Blakeman scolded, likening Cox’s maneuvering to the way Democrats cleared the decks for an unchallenged Kamala Harris. The Nassau executive pointedly reminded everyone that he, not Stefanik, just won big in a diverse, populous county.
“In Nassau County, with 110,000 more Democrats than Republicans, I just won reelection with a 36,000 vote margin – winning over 60% of independent voters and an unusually large percentage of Democrat voters,” Blakeman boasted this week.
The message is that he has the crossover appeal that Stefanik – an upstate conservative from a Trump-heavy district – might lack in downstate areas.
Behind the scenes, even Donald Trump appears content to let Blakeman make his case. Blakeman revealed that when Trump called to congratulate him on his Nassau victory, he told the President he’s exploring a run – and “He didn’t discourage me,” Blakeman noted.
That’s a sharp contrast to Trump’s treatment of Lawler. It suggests Trump hasn’t (yet) intervened to stop Blakeman from challenging Stefanik, despite Ed Cox’s apparent desire to hand the nomination to her. With Trump staying neutral for now and Cox’s edict being flouted, New York’s GOP is careening toward an internal showdown.
Blakeman is openly barnstorming the state – visiting New York City, the Hudson Valley, Albany, and beyond – to test the waters.
“Competition is good,” he says of a potential primary. “If people think that I’m the best candidate and that I would make the best governor, they’ll make their voices heard in the party. And if they think it’s Elise, then I’ll support Elise 100%.”
That thinly veiled challenge has shaken up a race Cox thought he had wrapped up for Stefanik.
Bruce Blakeman Trumps Ed Cox: GOP Floodgates Open
Blakeman’s rebellion is cracking open the floodgates for other ambitious Republicans who, until now, have stayed on the sidelines.
“There is a very real possibility Bruce Blakeman jumps in – and that opens the door for a lot of people,” observed Sid Rosenberg, the New York radio host known as a GOP kingmaker of sorts.
Indeed, once party leaders like Cox lose their iron grip, candidates are coming out of the woodwork. Among the names suddenly chattering about runs: former Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey, a familiar figure from the Pataki era, and Joe Pinion, the 2022 Senate nominee who shocked observers by winning roughly 43% of the vote against Chuck Schumer despite raising just over $1 million.
Pinion’s near-upset – the closest Schumer race in decades – proved a Republican can significantly over-perform expectations on a shoestring budget. McCaughey, for her part, has statewide name recognition and a reformer streak that could appeal to moderate voters. Their mere mention underscores the growing sense that Stefanik’s “inevitable” nomination might not be so inevitable after all.
But the most intriguing dark horse in the mix is Staten Island Borough President Vito Fossella.
A proven vote-getter behind enemy lines, Fossella just won re-election in New York City’s bluest borough with a staggering 68.4% of the vote – this in a county (Richmond) where Democrats actually outnumber Republicans on paper.
Fossella has never lost an election, dating back to his days on the City Council and then as a six-term congressman – the longest-serving Republican House member in New York City history. He’s battle-tested and knows how to win in hostile territory, having routinely attracted Democratic crossover voters.
In 2021, Fossella made a comeback to public office and hasn’t missed a beat, now governing a borough of 500,000 with a populist, law-and-order message. Enthusiasts tout him as the ultimate wild card: a Republican who can cut into the Democratic vote in New York City, a feat absolutely essential for any statewide GOP victory.
“Vito is the viable dark horse – a proven winner in the bunch,” one veteran party strategist said, noting Fossella’s dominance on Staten Island and past electoral success.
If Cox’s coronation of Stefanik falls apart, don’t be surprised if calls grow for Fossella to step onto the statewide stage. He has kept mum publicly, but allies say he’s watching the chaos with interest.
This soul-searching comes amid broader doubts about Ed Cox’s leadership. In his second stint as state GOP chair, Cox has presided over an operation mired in futility. The nadir came in this November’s New York City mayoral election, where Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa – running without serious party investment – scraped up only about 7% of the vote citywide on the GOP line.
It was a humiliation for the party and a far cry from the 30% that Lee Zeldin won in the city just a year earlier.
Many Republicans blame Cox’s top-down, out-of-touch approach for recent failures. Yet Cox is doubling down, vowing to “coordinate” the next gubernatorial nominee with no primary and attempting to play the role of kingmaker, much like some latter-day party boss in an epoch far gone.
“He’s acting more like Joe Biden crowning Kamala Harris than Richard Nixon’s son-in-law,” quipped one GOP insider, alluding to Cox’s familial connection to the former president.
The backlash from Blakeman and others suggests a party base no longer willing to simply take orders – especially not after consecutive statewide losses. For the first time in years, New York Republicans are witnessing an actual contest for the soul of their party, with insurgents and dark horses sensing opportunity.
Schumer’s Seat in Play? Blakeman’s Big Gambit
Looming in the background of this GOP drama is a tantalizing wild card: the possible shakeup of New York’s U.S. Senate seat held by Chuck Schumer. If Republicans smell blood in the gubernatorial water, an outright feeding frenzy could erupt if Schumer were to resign mid-term, triggering a rare special Senate election. And surprisingly, some insiders say that scenario is not far-fetched.
A well-known Manhattan Democratic consultant insists it’s “a near certainty” that Schumer will bow out if his fellow Democrats try to strip him of his leadership post. Schumer, 74, has been Senate minority leader since Republicans took the majority, and whispers abound that younger rivals could push him aside.
“Why would Chuck stick around under those circumstances?” the Democratic strategist mused, noting that Schumer might prefer to retire on his own terms rather than serve as a disgraced backbencher.
If he chose to step down early, Gov. Hochul would appoint an interim senator – but a special election would quickly follow. Such a contest could be a once-in-a-generation perfect storm for the GOP.
Unlike a regular November race, a special Senate election in New York is non-partisan – there is no party primary. Each party can nominate a candidate, but independent and minor-party candidates can also run, potentially splintering the dominant Democratic vote. Republicans vividly recall 2010, when a little-known Scott Brown captured Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in deep-blue Massachusetts by exploiting a crowded field and voter anger.
In New York, a surprise Schumer vacancy could tempt multiple ambitious Democrats into the fray: perhaps left-wing firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on one line, a more centrist establishment Dem on another. With Democrats split, a unified Republican could squeak through with even 35-40% of the vote.
“It would be the perfect storm for us,” a gleeful GOP operative said, imagining a scenario where Bruce Blakeman – or any strong Republican – wins a plurality and fills out Schumer’s term.
Blakeman himself has hinted that Washington might be on his radar. He’s raised his profile fighting Hochul and Cox, but allies note that a quick Senate run might ultimately appeal to him even more than the uphill battle for governor. After all, a special Senate election could occur sooner (potentially 2026) and with far more chaotic dynamics.
“Bruce is trumping Ed Cox right now – maybe angling to be governor, but maybe angling to be the next United States senator from New York,” one GOP insider observed.
Blakeman hasn’t stated any Senate plans outright, but his aggressive moves now would position him well for either opportunity.
For New York Republicans, these parallel plots amount to the most excitement – and uncertainty – in years. A party that has not won a statewide office since 2002 is now wrestling with how to replicate recent near-misses (like Zeldin’s tight 2022 race) and finally break the Democratic stranglehold.
Ed Cox wants to centralize control and avoid internal feuds, but his approach is sparking rebellion instead. Bruce Blakeman is firing back, determined to ensure the nomination isn’t decided in a smoke-filled room. As he does, a cast of characters, from Elise Stefanik to Vito Fossella, waits to see if the GOP will choose a predictable path or embrace a wild card.
Even the specter of Chuck Schumer’s seat is dangling out there, a reminder that political fortunes can turn on a dime.
The road to 2026 in New York is suddenly anything but orderly. What was supposed to be a coronation has turned into a slugfest, and the outcome – governor, senator, or otherwise – could redefine New York’s political landscape.
As the feisty Blakeman put it when challenging the party line, “If I’m the best candidate, the people will make it known.”
Buckle up – the people, and not the party bosses, might get the final word in this fight for New York’s future.
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